Boris Johnson and the Tories have floundered in recent months due to the partygate scandal and a failure to put on a united front against the opposition. Last week, Mr Johnson became the first serving Prime Minister to be proven to have broken the law while in office, just weeks before ballots are due to be cast across the whole of the UK.
The findings by the Metropolitan Police have cast the Tories into chaos, and in the polls Labour are still storming ahead.
Sir Keir was seen in Westminster buying rounds of drinks for Labour staffers on Thursday following the passing of the parliamentary motion to investigate Mr Johnson’s alleged deliberate misleading of Parliament.
A senior Labour source said: “The reality is that their bloated, overpaid operation has completely underestimated us.
“From Paterson to Partygate to Sunak’s tax dodging to this week, they have got it wrong at every turn.”
READ MORE: Tory MPs already looking for new leader
How is Keir Starmer doing in the polls?
After celebrating his second anniversary as Labour leader earlier this month, Sir Keir has massively turned the party image around and he and his party are doing well in recent political polls.
Opinion polls for Sir Keir are overwhelming positive – at least in comparison to Mr Johnson.
When asked “How well is Starmer doing as Labour leader?”, 53 percent of respondents to the YouGov poll on April 7 said he was doing well, in comparison to 27 percent who said he wasn’t.
Comparatively, when asked the same question on the same date about Mr Johnson, 65 percent said he was doing badly, and 29 percent said he was doing well.
As of April 16, polls from Deltapoll found Labour was also storming ahead with 43 percent, with Mr Johnson’s party trailing behind with 34 percent.
YouGov polls have demonstrated Labour may have less of a lead than other polls, but their most recent voter intention tracker from April 14 found Labour out of the margin of error on 38 percent, with the troubled Conservatives on 33 percent.
Since the last general election in 2019, there have been a number of by-elections, with more recent ones working out in favour of the Labour Party.
Labour held on in Batley and Spen in July 2021, and the Liberal Democrats pulled off a surprise win in Chesham and Amersham in June 2021, at the expense of the Mr Johnson’s party.
Local elections across the UK will take place on May 5, and the results are likely to be a clear indicator as to how badly – if at all – the partygate scandal has hit the Conservatives.
One senior MP said: “Nothing will happen until after the May elections, which could be terrible.” While another added: “I suspect the bigger challenges are still to come. The PM being fined multiple times will be very bad, but by far the biggest issue is the sense that the government is now tiring and disjointed. That’s what is making me nervous.”
Votes will be held in local authorities across England, including in London boroughs, and all 32 of Scotland’s councils. Northern Ireland Assembly will also be held on the same day, along with all 22 local authorities in Wales.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus last week predicted more drama for Mr Johnson, with an overall swing of five percent to Labour away from the Conservatives expected.
This would see Sir Keir pick up 22 local councils while the Government could lose as many as 800 councillors in total.
And in Wakefield where disgraced Tory MP Imran Ahmad Khan’s seat is being contested after he was found guilty of assaulting a 15-year-old in 2008, Labour is hoping for a win to begin to rebuild their red wall.
There are even rumours former Labour minister Ed Balls might attempt a “political comeback” – but how close Labour is to securing victory is still unclear.